HOUSING CONTINUES TO BE A TEETER-TOTTER

Although I've been a REALTOR for over 8 years, this year seems to the year that continues to be among the most difficult to see a sustainable pattern on which we can hang our hats.

Depending on whom you've heard or read last , conclusions regarding the 'bottoming out' seem to to waiver daily. I, as a studious agent, am afraid to speak with any real sense of confidence because my clients are searching for and expect me to give them something more definitive than a guess . That said...A recent forecast made in the Kiplinger letter (Aug 7,2009) is the one which most closely is akin to my own convictions.

Paraphrasing their early August writings...Kiplinger thinks that the rebounds we are now seeing really mask a continuing decline...their words were "big problems". They believe that the market will still drop another 5-8% before we find a firm bottom...and once reached, the decline may be as deep as a 40% retraction from the 2006 market highs. Another authoritative source is Case-Shiller whose statistics tell us that today's pricing is that of mid-2002.

Kiplinger further suggest that the recovery to previous peaks "will take years'. They continue in their forecast to say that "in most of the country it may take 7-12 years to regain lost ground".
To that, without an inflationary spike ...I CONCUR...at 3% per year increase, the arithmetic is easy. Factored into their forecast is the rising joblessness and the high supply of unsold inventory.

They continue to conjecture that if prices do rise...the glut of sellers who were waiting for that to happen will put their homes on the market in a manner which will again gives us an over-inventory...and a continuation of the current cycle. Those new market inventories and the new foreclosure will dampen whatever short term "excitement" we'll see.

Still...I DO believe that the end to the decline is in sight...we'll just be flat for some 9-12 months and then ...the corner will be turned and we'll be in a more predictable and normal market. To help effect that The Fed will work to keep mortgage rates low...and better housing days will be on the horizon!

So if you are a buyer...BUY, and if you are a seller...PRICE YOUR HOME RIGHT. Getting an appraisal wouldn't hurt. You'd then have a better sense of what a lender might do.