Although I've been a REALTOR for over 8 years, this year seems to the year that continues to be among the most difficult to see a sustainable pattern on which we can hang our hats.
Depending on whom you've heard or read last , conclusions regarding the 'bottoming out' seem to to waiver daily. I, as a studious agent, am afraid to speak with any real sense of confidence because my clients are searching for and expect me to give them something more definitive than a guess . That said...A recent forecast made in the Kiplinger letter (Aug 7,2009) is the one which most closely is akin to my own convictions.
Paraphrasing their early August writings...Kiplinger thinks that the rebounds we are now seeing really mask a continuing decline...their words were "big problems". They believe that the market will still drop another 5-8% before we find a firm bottom...and once reached, the decline may be as deep as a 40% retraction from the 2006 market highs. Another authoritative source is Case-Shiller whose statistics tell us that today's pricing is that of mid-2002.
Kiplinger further suggest that the recovery to previous peaks "will take years'. They continue in their forecast to say that "in most of the country it may take 7-12 years to regain lost ground".
To that, without an inflationary spike ...I CONCUR...at 3% per year increase, the arithmetic is easy. Factored into their forecast is the rising joblessness and the high supply of unsold inventory.
They continue to conjecture that if prices do rise...the glut of sellers who were waiting for that to happen will put their homes on the market in a manner which will again gives us an over-inventory...and a continuation of the current cycle. Those new market inventories and the new foreclosure will dampen whatever short term "excitement" we'll see.
Still...I DO believe that the end to the decline is in sight...we'll just be flat for some 9-12 months and then ...the corner will be turned and we'll be in a more predictable and normal market. To help effect that The Fed will work to keep mortgage rates low...and better housing days will be on the horizon!
So if you are a buyer...BUY, and if you are a seller...PRICE YOUR HOME RIGHT. Getting an appraisal wouldn't hurt. You'd then have a better sense of what a lender might do.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Thursday, August 27, 2009
More Industry Statistics
Fran Brode, our well read President, regularly sends relevant news items to her agents in order to provide us a studied overview of what's happening in our market place( just in case we didn't see them ourselves)...the following is a direct extraction of stats from a very recent Wall Street Journal article...
Readers can certainly find glimmerings of a silver lining in this article, but I, as do any number of more learned economists, have opined in earlier blogs, still look for a protracted flatness in the market for many more months (the 'L' shaped effect). So I believe that...Astute Pricing is the key to Quick Sales.
In a future posting...I'll attach thoughts developed in a recent Kiplinger Letter which suggests that it may take some real patience and time before we see a sustainable upward movement...but I do believe it will come.
Please read on..and if I can be of any help do let me know.
________________________________________________________
WASHINGTON -- New-home sales climbed more than anticipated in July, staging their fourth straight month of strong gains to add to evidence that the housing market is emerging from its long slump.
Sales of single-family homes increased by 9.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 compared to the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That was the highest number sold since September 2008 and well above projections for a 1.6% gain to 390,000 by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. The increase was the fifth in seven months, as buyers are returning to the market in search of bargains.
The market for new homes appears to have bottomed in January, when sales hit 329,000. Home construction unexpectedly fell 1% in July, however, according to data released earlier in the month.
June new-home sales were revised up to an annual rate of 395,000, a 9.1% increase, Wednesday's data showed. Originally, the government had reported an 11% jump in June sales to 384,000, though May sales were also revised up to 362,000 from 346,000.
Year over year, July new-home sales were still down 13.4%, however.
The market for new homes is expected to continue to lag sales of used homes, where foreclosures have dragged down prices.
The median price for a new home was $210,100 in July, down 11.5% from $237,300 the same month a year ago. On a monthly basis, the price edged down 0.1% from $210,400 in June.
Oversupply has been is one factor keeping prices down, though there was significant improvement in that area, as well. The ratio of houses for sale to houses sold in July was 7.5, the lowest level since April 2007 and down from 8.5 the month before. At the end of July, there were an estimated 271,000 homes for sale, the smallest number since March 1993. That compares with 280,000 in June.
Regionally last month, new-home sales jumped 32.4% in the Northeast and 16.2% in the South, with sales up 1% in the West. Sales were down 7.6% in the Midwest.
Readers can certainly find glimmerings of a silver lining in this article, but I, as do any number of more learned economists, have opined in earlier blogs, still look for a protracted flatness in the market for many more months (the 'L' shaped effect). So I believe that...Astute Pricing is the key to Quick Sales.
In a future posting...I'll attach thoughts developed in a recent Kiplinger Letter which suggests that it may take some real patience and time before we see a sustainable upward movement...but I do believe it will come.
Please read on..and if I can be of any help do let me know.
________________________________________________________
WASHINGTON -- New-home sales climbed more than anticipated in July, staging their fourth straight month of strong gains to add to evidence that the housing market is emerging from its long slump.
Sales of single-family homes increased by 9.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 compared to the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That was the highest number sold since September 2008 and well above projections for a 1.6% gain to 390,000 by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. The increase was the fifth in seven months, as buyers are returning to the market in search of bargains.
The market for new homes appears to have bottomed in January, when sales hit 329,000. Home construction unexpectedly fell 1% in July, however, according to data released earlier in the month.
June new-home sales were revised up to an annual rate of 395,000, a 9.1% increase, Wednesday's data showed. Originally, the government had reported an 11% jump in June sales to 384,000, though May sales were also revised up to 362,000 from 346,000.
Year over year, July new-home sales were still down 13.4%, however.
The market for new homes is expected to continue to lag sales of used homes, where foreclosures have dragged down prices.
The median price for a new home was $210,100 in July, down 11.5% from $237,300 the same month a year ago. On a monthly basis, the price edged down 0.1% from $210,400 in June.
Oversupply has been is one factor keeping prices down, though there was significant improvement in that area, as well. The ratio of houses for sale to houses sold in July was 7.5, the lowest level since April 2007 and down from 8.5 the month before. At the end of July, there were an estimated 271,000 homes for sale, the smallest number since March 1993. That compares with 280,000 in June.
Regionally last month, new-home sales jumped 32.4% in the Northeast and 16.2% in the South, with sales up 1% in the West. Sales were down 7.6% in the Midwest.
SOME COMMUNITY UPDATING...No Real Estate News
Hopefully, you'll find this posting a reprieve from the daily ups and downs of the housing market. I'm convinced that in the media's pursuit to fill time/space...they find pleasure in taking us on a roller-coaster ride. When things begin look a bit brighter, they seem to always drop the other shoe... They seem to know how to grab our attention, don't they?
So... today I'll joyfully share information about our collective areas' community festival...
Linconshire's 8th annual "Taste of Lincolnshire", a really happening, is this weekend, Aug 28,29,and 30th.
Great tastes from popular local eateries include roasted corn on the cob, lamb chops, falafel, sushi, wine & beers, Mai Tais, pulled pork, kabobs. Music, entertainment and great people watching is the fare for the weekend. New this year is a Lincolnshire Idol Talent Contest as well as a pet parade.
Where: Lincolnshire Commons...right next to Kona Grill and across of Flemings (Milwaukee and Aptikisic )
When: Friday, 11:30-10PM
Saturday 10-10 PM
Sunday Noon-6PM
Come one, come all...this promises to be the best 'TASTE' ever!!!
See...no Real Estate information today...but Tomorrow? Who knows...it's another day...
So... today I'll joyfully share information about our collective areas' community festival...
Linconshire's 8th annual "Taste of Lincolnshire", a really happening, is this weekend, Aug 28,29,and 30th.
Great tastes from popular local eateries include roasted corn on the cob, lamb chops, falafel, sushi, wine & beers, Mai Tais, pulled pork, kabobs. Music, entertainment and great people watching is the fare for the weekend. New this year is a Lincolnshire Idol Talent Contest as well as a pet parade.
Where: Lincolnshire Commons...right next to Kona Grill and across of Flemings (Milwaukee and Aptikisic )
When: Friday, 11:30-10PM
Saturday 10-10 PM
Sunday Noon-6PM
Come one, come all...this promises to be the best 'TASTE' ever!!!
See...no Real Estate information today...but Tomorrow? Who knows...it's another day...
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
TO BUY OR NOT...
Hi...
Today was a combination of 3 or 4 tasks all of which were Real Estate related, in one way or another.
As disclosed in yesterday's BLOG, I spent the morning hours being interviewed by a reporter and her camera man from one of the Real Estate networks...it was a fun way to field questions about how and what I do to separate myself from the other 3000+ North Shore agents. The network people are going to provide me video files that can be linked to some of the social network vehicles like FACE BOOK and LINKED-IN. The files will also be posted to YouTube within the next few days. I really would appreciate any comments once posted, which should be mid-next week...critical or complimentary. So, fire away...I'd appreciate your candor(within limits). If I came out looking good, then I'll also post the interview to my website, this blog and my property listings.
During the rest of the day, I had occasion to try to explain to some sellers what they could do to help stimulate new buyer interest in their homes...2 of the questionnaires were not MY clients, so the answers given them were most sensitive to my ethical responsibilities as outlined by OUR 'code of conduct'. Candidly, I suggested that they talk to to their agents ...giving advise to someone else's clients is a slippery slope from which I plan to stay away, as should any responsible Realtor.
3rdly...I Took another rental listing.
A closing thought... Now is really a great time to buy a home. Interest rates for a 30 year fixed mortgage are at their lowest levels since last May. According to Freddie Mac the average rate hovers around 5.125%...but you should check out that rate with YOUR mortgage supplier. The 5/1 adjustable ARM which offers a fixed rate for 5 years and then adjusts was 4.75.according to Freddie Mac..a low water mark since January 2005. Again...check with your mortgage people!
A 2nd reason is tied to the 1st time home buyers tax credit. Unless extended , it goes away in December...but the definition of a 1st time home buyer and income limits are clearly spelled out. If you or someone you know on the Shore has any questions, I'm but a telephone call/e-mail away.
Food for thought...
Today was a combination of 3 or 4 tasks all of which were Real Estate related, in one way or another.
As disclosed in yesterday's BLOG, I spent the morning hours being interviewed by a reporter and her camera man from one of the Real Estate networks...it was a fun way to field questions about how and what I do to separate myself from the other 3000+ North Shore agents. The network people are going to provide me video files that can be linked to some of the social network vehicles like FACE BOOK and LINKED-IN. The files will also be posted to YouTube within the next few days. I really would appreciate any comments once posted, which should be mid-next week...critical or complimentary. So, fire away...I'd appreciate your candor(within limits). If I came out looking good, then I'll also post the interview to my website, this blog and my property listings.
During the rest of the day, I had occasion to try to explain to some sellers what they could do to help stimulate new buyer interest in their homes...2 of the questionnaires were not MY clients, so the answers given them were most sensitive to my ethical responsibilities as outlined by OUR 'code of conduct'. Candidly, I suggested that they talk to to their agents ...giving advise to someone else's clients is a slippery slope from which I plan to stay away, as should any responsible Realtor.
3rdly...I Took another rental listing.
A closing thought... Now is really a great time to buy a home. Interest rates for a 30 year fixed mortgage are at their lowest levels since last May. According to Freddie Mac the average rate hovers around 5.125%...but you should check out that rate with YOUR mortgage supplier. The 5/1 adjustable ARM which offers a fixed rate for 5 years and then adjusts was 4.75.according to Freddie Mac..a low water mark since January 2005. Again...check with your mortgage people!
A 2nd reason is tied to the 1st time home buyers tax credit. Unless extended , it goes away in December...but the definition of a 1st time home buyer and income limits are clearly spelled out. If you or someone you know on the Shore has any questions, I'm but a telephone call/e-mail away.
Food for thought...
Monday, August 24, 2009
Optimistic numbers but...
Aug 24th...
Almost the end of Summer and professionally, almost the end of the Spring/Summer Real Estate buying season for those home buyers who intended on being in a new home BEFORE school started. We, as Realtors, didn't see the "normal" school spike we had hoped for...not to say that we didn't see some increase in activity, we did... but frankly, we expected those sales and more...
Although the July housing Sales figures just released by the Fed showed a marked increase in July to July figures and the rise by percentage was the strongest we've seen in recent years, it's important to recognize that those figures included foreclosures, short sales, and tax incentivized 1st time home buyers, as well as bargain sales weighted heavily from the distressed markets of California, Nevada, and Florida, to name but a few of those markets. All that said, if the numbers were adjusted to discount those new kinds of "sales " that weren't known or analyzed years ago , things would not look so rosey as the 7.2% indicated.
So... going forward a few months...If housing inventories show an increase when some of the new and anticipated foreclosures come on market... look to a continued flatness in prices. Sales may increase driven by bargain hunters , but prices will continue to reflect the "bath tub or L shaped" recovery which experts have been forecasting.
Again...If I sound foreboding, don't totally despair. Houses correctly priced and perceived by buyers as values WILL sell much more quickly than homes whose sellers are married to yesterday's less than realistic prices. Priced right = faster sales, and homes priced correctly will pass the appraisers "acid" test.
My expertise and insight is for Chicago's North Shore buyers OR sellers...but the fundamentals are national! Remember...Price right, stress curb appeal and remain optimistic and don't dump one agent for another without GOOD reason. If you hired a smart agent, ride the wave with him/her...and remember friends or relatives are not always the BEST agents.
Sellers still have time to sell THIS year...and buyers, with proper representation, can profit from the current condition of the market...be it here, there or anywhere!
Almost the end of Summer and professionally, almost the end of the Spring/Summer Real Estate buying season for those home buyers who intended on being in a new home BEFORE school started. We, as Realtors, didn't see the "normal" school spike we had hoped for...not to say that we didn't see some increase in activity, we did... but frankly, we expected those sales and more...
Although the July housing Sales figures just released by the Fed showed a marked increase in July to July figures and the rise by percentage was the strongest we've seen in recent years, it's important to recognize that those figures included foreclosures, short sales, and tax incentivized 1st time home buyers, as well as bargain sales weighted heavily from the distressed markets of California, Nevada, and Florida, to name but a few of those markets. All that said, if the numbers were adjusted to discount those new kinds of "sales " that weren't known or analyzed years ago , things would not look so rosey as the 7.2% indicated.
So... going forward a few months...If housing inventories show an increase when some of the new and anticipated foreclosures come on market... look to a continued flatness in prices. Sales may increase driven by bargain hunters , but prices will continue to reflect the "bath tub or L shaped" recovery which experts have been forecasting.
Again...If I sound foreboding, don't totally despair. Houses correctly priced and perceived by buyers as values WILL sell much more quickly than homes whose sellers are married to yesterday's less than realistic prices. Priced right = faster sales, and homes priced correctly will pass the appraisers "acid" test.
My expertise and insight is for Chicago's North Shore buyers OR sellers...but the fundamentals are national! Remember...Price right, stress curb appeal and remain optimistic and don't dump one agent for another without GOOD reason. If you hired a smart agent, ride the wave with him/her...and remember friends or relatives are not always the BEST agents.
Sellers still have time to sell THIS year...and buyers, with proper representation, can profit from the current condition of the market...be it here, there or anywhere!
Friday, August 21, 2009
What's Marketing anyhow?
Today's Friday...
Spent part of the day designing a new graphic for the rear window on my vehicle...it now asks ...Do You Want an Outstanding Realtor? and gives my contact information.
The balance of the day included taking a listing of a rental
Next week I'm being interviewed and filmed for a YouTube web cast which is part of a series identifying outstanding Realtors, both on Chicago's North shore and in the City...
More to come...
Spent part of the day designing a new graphic for the rear window on my vehicle...it now asks ...Do You Want an Outstanding Realtor? and gives my contact information.
The balance of the day included taking a listing of a rental
Next week I'm being interviewed and filmed for a YouTube web cast which is part of a series identifying outstanding Realtors, both on Chicago's North shore and in the City...
More to come...
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Setting up a profile ...trying to give one a window into who I am... is much more challenging than I had imagined...but rethinking books read, recording artists that I'd consider favorites and the like, has given me some moments to relive my time with them... like Johnny Mathis when I was in my late teens...the girl friends I had then...etc. What fun thoughts/memories.
If Blogs are to be windows into our day or career...then today was a mixture of a marketing forum with some top producing Coldwell Banker agents and participation in a golf outing of my office associates in order to to nurture synergism. Both were productive and in a word successful, except for a poor showing on the links.
My goal now...besides trying to do more business immediately... is to develop a forward thinking marketing plan. Like thousands of agents, we have to ask ourselves the question...where is my business going to come from and how do I build a stronger and sustainable referral base...that's my project for the foreseeable future...I've done and am still doing the Buffini thing, so that should be a basis from which to build.
If Blogs are to be windows into our day or career...then today was a mixture of a marketing forum with some top producing Coldwell Banker agents and participation in a golf outing of my office associates in order to to nurture synergism. Both were productive and in a word successful, except for a poor showing on the links.
My goal now...besides trying to do more business immediately... is to develop a forward thinking marketing plan. Like thousands of agents, we have to ask ourselves the question...where is my business going to come from and how do I build a stronger and sustainable referral base...that's my project for the foreseeable future...I've done and am still doing the Buffini thing, so that should be a basis from which to build.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
I'm putting a toe in...
It looks like I'm at another technological crossroad...1st, the computer...then a website, social networking, jotting and on and on...
After seeing the Julia Childs' movie, I've decided to take another step and will try putting my thoughts , sometimes personal, sometimes professional, down. It didn't look to hard...but a question remains...did they glamorize the process and its therapeutic results...
I guess we'll see...
now you know the lower case 'why'...hopefully, when I collect my thoughts...I'll learn how to communicate using this method...and I'll throw out something of interest to someone...
until then...good night.
After seeing the Julia Childs' movie, I've decided to take another step and will try putting my thoughts , sometimes personal, sometimes professional, down. It didn't look to hard...but a question remains...did they glamorize the process and its therapeutic results...
I guess we'll see...
now you know the lower case 'why'...hopefully, when I collect my thoughts...I'll learn how to communicate using this method...and I'll throw out something of interest to someone...
until then...good night.
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